How We Evaluate Predictions
Every prediction gets an accuracy score from 0-100%. Here's exactly how we calculate it.
The Formula
Accuracy = Base Score + Bonuses − Deductions
The base score depends on whether we got the result right. Bonuses reward getting the details right (total goals, margin, xG alignment). The final score is capped based on prediction type.
The Five Prediction Types
Every match gets one of five predictions based on our model's confidence:
Base Score Ranges
The base score is determined by what we predicted and what actually happened. Scoring starts at the minimum of the range—bonuses push it toward the maximum.
Strong Predictions (1 or 2)
| Outcome | Base Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted team wins | 85–100% | Nailed it |
| Draw | 50–70% | Close miss, one goal shy |
| Other team wins | 0–50% | Wrong call |
Range Predictions (1X or X2)
| Outcome | Base Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Primary hit (leaning team wins) | 75–90% | Got our lean right |
| Secondary hit (draw) | 75–90% | Safety net worked |
| Miss (other team wins) | 0–50% | Wrong call |
Avoid Predictions (?)
| Outcome | Base Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Any outcome | 50–75% | Bonuses determine final score |
For "avoid" picks, we didn't back a specific outcome—so bonuses like "ended in draw" or "tight 1-goal win" determine the final score.
Bonuses That Increase Your Score
Getting the result right is only part of the story. These bonuses reward predictions that got the details right too.
Close Miss Bonus
+8 to +14%When the result was just 1 goal away from being a hit. For example: we predicted "1" (home win), they drew 1-1. One more goal and we'd have been right.
Avoid Outcome Bonus
+6 to +15%For "avoid" predictions that proved correct. Draw = +15% (we called it tight, it was). 1-goal win = +6-10% (still a close game).
xG Direction Bonus
+2 to +10%When match statistics (xG) back up our prediction. If we said "home to win" and the home team created more expected goals, we get a bonus—even if they lost.
Total Goals Bonus
+2 to +10%When we predicted the right number of total goals. If we predicted 2.3 total goals and the match ended 1-1 (2 goals), that's a near-perfect call.
Dominance Bonus
+3 to +8%When we predicted the right winning margin. If we predicted home by 1.2 goals and they won 2-1, we nailed the margin.
Chaos Bonus
+4 to +8%When a match goes wild (5+ goals) and we predicted a reasonable scoring game (2.0-4.5 goals). High-scoring chaos is hard to predict exactly—we get partial credit for being in the ballpark.
Upset Alert Bonus
+6 to +12%When we flagged upset risk and the underdog delivered. Even if we backed the favorite, the upset warning showed we saw the risk coming.
Contrarian Bonus
+4 to +6%When we went against popular opinion and were right. Only awarded for correct predictions— being contrarian and wrong doesn't earn a bonus.
Possible Deductions
These reduce your score when the prediction got key details wrong. Important: wrong predictions (misses) don't get deductions—starting at 0% is punishment enough.
Score Caps
Even with bonuses, each prediction type has a maximum possible score:
Evaluation Categories
The final accuracy score determines the evaluation category:
See It In Action
Every finished match on the Results page shows its accuracy score with a full breakdown. Click any match to see the base score, bonuses earned, and deductions applied.
View Results