Understanding pG (Predicted Goals)
Our core metric: a machine learning prediction of how many goals each team will score in an upcoming match.
What is pG?
pG (Predicted Goals) is our machine learning model's forecast of how many goals a team will score in an upcoming match. For every fixture, we generate two numbers:
Home pG
The predicted number of goals the home team will score.
Away pG
The predicted number of goals the away team will score.
These two numbers are our only prediction output. We don't tell you what bet to place or who will win — we provide the data, and you decide how to use it.
pG vs xG: What's the Difference?
People often confuse pG with xG. They're related but fundamentally different:
xG (Expected Goals)
- •Measures what already happened
- •Calculated from actual shots taken
- •Available after a match
- •Answers: "How good were the chances created?"
pG (Predicted Goals)
- •Predicts what will happen
- •Generated by machine learning model
- •Available before a match
- •Answers: "How many goals will likely be scored?"
The Relationship
Historical xG data is one of the key inputs our model uses to generate pG predictions. We analyze how much xG teams typically create and concede, then use this (along with 240+ other features) to predict future goals. Think of xG as the historical foundation that makes accurate pG predictions possible.
How We Calculate pG
Our prediction model analyzes 240+ features for each match. Here's a simplified view of the process:
Gather Historical Data
For both teams, we collect performance data: recent form, xG created and conceded, home/away records, head-to-head history, league position, and more.
Engineer Features
Raw data is transformed into 240+ predictive features. For example: "home team's xG per match over last 5 games" or "away team's clean sheet rate on the road this season."
Run Through ML Model
Features are fed into our LightGBM model (trained on 15,000+ historical matches). We use two models: one predicts home goals, one predicts away goals.
Output pG Predictions
The model outputs predicted goals for each team. We also calculate a confidence score based on data quality and model certainty.
Key Features We Analyze
Reading pG Numbers
pG values are continuous numbers that represent expected goal output. Here's how to interpret them:
Example Prediction
What This Tells You
- We expect Liverpool to create chances equivalent to ~2.1 goals
- We expect Man United to create chances equivalent to ~1.3 goals
- Total pG: 3.4 — suggests a relatively high-scoring game
- Liverpool favored (higher pG), but not overwhelmingly
Understanding Confidence Scores
Every prediction comes with a confidence score (0-100%). This reflects how certain we are about the prediction:
What Affects Confidence
- • Teams with lots of historical data
- • Clear favorite vs underdog matchup
- • Consistent recent form
- • Good head-to-head data available
- • Newly promoted teams (limited data)
- • Evenly matched opponents
- • Inconsistent recent form
- • Limited head-to-head history
Important Note
High confidence doesn't mean the prediction is guaranteed to be accurate. It means the model has strong historical patterns to base the prediction on. Football is inherently unpredictable — even high-confidence predictions will sometimes be wrong.
What pG Doesn't Tell You
pG is a powerful tool, but it has limitations. Our predictions don't account for:
Not Included
- ✗Player injuries and suspensions
- ✗Tactical changes or manager decisions
- ✗Team motivation (relegation battles, etc.)
- ✗Weather and pitch conditions
- ✗Random events (early red cards, etc.)
What You Should Do
- ✓Check team news before matches
- ✓Consider context pG can't capture
- ✓Use pG as one input, not the only input
- ✓Combine with your own analysis
- ✓Accept that surprises happen
Key Takeaways
- pG is our core output — predicted goals for home and away teams
- pG predicts the future, while xG measures the past
- We analyze 240+ features including form, xG history, and head-to-head data
- Confidence scores indicate data quality, not guaranteed accuracy
- pG is a tool — combine it with your own analysis for best results
Continue Learning
What is xG (Expected Goals)? →
Understand the historical metric that powers our predictions.
Over/Under Betting Guide →
Use pG for totals betting with combined goals predictions.
Asian Handicap Explained →
Apply pG differences to handicap betting strategies.
View Today's Predictions →
See pG predictions in action for upcoming matches.