Double Chance Explained
Cover two outcomes with one selection. Lower odds, higher win rate. Here's how double chance works and when it makes sense.
How Double Chance Works
In a standard 1X2 market, you pick one of three outcomes: home win (1), draw (X), or away win (2). With double chance, you cover two of those three.
The Three Double Chance Options
1X (Home Win or Draw)
You win if the home team wins OR if the match ends in a draw.
Only an away victory beats you.
X2 (Draw or Away Win)
You win if the away team wins OR if the match ends in a draw.
Only a home victory beats you.
12 (Home Win or Away Win)
You win if either team wins. No draw allowed.
Only a draw beats you.
The Trade-off: Safety vs. Returns
There's no free lunch. Covering two outcomes means lower odds because you're more likely to win.
Same Match, Different Markets
Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace (example odds)
1X2 Market
Double Chance
Liverpool at 1.50 gives you a ~67% implied chance of winning. Liverpool 1X at 1.18 gives you ~85% but with proportionally lower returns. You're trading potential profit for increased probability.
When Double Chance Makes Sense
Accumulator Building
When you're combining multiple selections, one loss kills the whole bet. Double chance on the legs you're less certain about can protect your acca while keeping odds reasonable.
Strong Favorite with Upset Risk
Manchester City at home might be heavy favorites, but cup matches and tricky opponents can spring surprises. 1X lets you back City while guarding against an unlikely draw.
Backing Away Teams
Away wins are the hardest to predict. If you fancy an away side but aren't fully confident, X2 lets you win on the draw too.
Two Good Teams, Draw Unlikely
Some matchups just don't end in draws — attacking teams, end-to-end games. 12 (either team wins) can be attractive when you expect goals and a winner.
When Double Chance Doesn't Make Sense
Very Short Odds
1X on a heavy favorite might be 1.05-1.10. At those prices, even small losses wipe out many wins. The risk/reward is poor unless you're extremely confident.
Covering the Wrong Outcomes
Don't use double chance just because it's "safer." If you think only one outcome is likely, backing that outright gives better value. DC makes sense when you genuinely see two plausible results.
When You're Chasing Losses
Double chance isn't a recovery tool. The lower odds mean you need bigger stakes to recover losses — a dangerous spiral.
How We Use Double Chance
Our prediction model outputs probabilities for all three outcomes. When we recommend double chance, it's because the combined probability is strong enough to offer value at the available odds.
Example: Our "Best Pick" Logic
Model predicts: Home 55% | Draw 25% | Away 20%
Home win (55%) at odds 1.80 = decent value. We might recommend 1X2 home.
Model predicts: Home 45% | Draw 30% | Away 25%
Home win alone is uncertain. But 1X (45% + 30% = 75%) at odds 1.35 might be solid. We'd consider double chance here.
Our "Best Pick" strategy automatically selects between 1X2 and double chance based on which offers better risk-adjusted value for each specific match.
Key Takeaways
- •Double chance covers 2 of 3 possible outcomes
- •Higher win rate, lower odds — you're trading profit for safety
- •Best for accas, uncertain favorites, and away team backers
- •Avoid very short odds where margins are too thin
- •Our model recommends DC when combined probability offers value