What is Merit Score?
Not all wins are equal. A contextual metric that reveals the true quality of a team's performances by adjusting for opponent strength.
The Problem with Traditional Form
Imagine two teams, both with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Traditional form says they're equally in-form. But what if Team A beat the top 4 sides by narrow margins, while Team B crushed the bottom 4 and lost to their only tough opponent?
This is where Merit Score comes in — it measures how well did they actually play, given who they faced?
Merit Score adjusts performance for context. A 1-0 win against the league leaders earns more merit than a 3-0 win against the bottom team. It reveals who's genuinely performing well vs who's had an easy run.
How Merit Score Works
Merit Score is calculated for each match by comparing a team's actual xG performance against what was expected based on the opponent's strength (derived from betting odds).
The Formula (Simplified)
If you outperformed expectations (got more xG than expected, allowed less xGA than expected), you get a high merit score. If you underperformed against a weak opponent, you get a low score.
Real Match Examples
Expected: City favored. Liverpool was a slight underdog at home.
Merit: 3.8 — Liverpool outperformed expectations significantly. They created quality chances and limited one of the best attacks in the league. This was a genuinely excellent performance.
Expected: Arsenal heavy favorites. Should dominate at home.
Merit: 1.5 — Despite winning, Arsenal underperformed. Against a relegation-threatened side at home, they should have created more and conceded less. The win masks a concerning performance.
Merit Score Metrics Explained
Last 5 Average
Average merit score across the team's last 5 matches. Gives a reliable picture of current contextual form. Values around 2.0 are neutral.
Last 2 Average (Momentum)
Average of the last 2 matches only. When compared to Last 5, reveals if a team is trending up or down. Rising momentum can signal improved form.
Trend Indicator (↑↑/↑/→/↓/↓↓)
Visual indicator comparing recent form (Last 2) vs medium-term (Last 5). Double arrows indicate significant momentum changes. This helps spot teams improving or declining.
Recovery Signal
Special indicator when a team's recent performances (Last 2) show improvement from a poor stretch (Last 5). Our analysis shows 78% of teams with this signal continue improving — useful for spotting turnarounds early.
Why Merit Score Matters
Reveals Hidden Quality
A team might be on a losing streak but with high merit — they've faced tough opponents and competed well. Traditional form would write them off; merit score says they're better than results suggest.
Identifies False Confidence
Conversely, a team riding a winning streak with low merit has been beating weak teams unconvincingly. When they face a real test, they're likely to struggle despite their "good form."
Better Predictions
Merit score is one of the inputs to our prediction model. Teams with high contextual form tend to maintain good performances. This adds a layer of insight beyond raw statistics.
Key Takeaways
- Merit Score adjusts for context — it measures how well a team performed relative to what was expected given their opponent
- 2.0 is neutral — scores above indicate outperformance, below indicate underperformance
- Trend matters — compare Last 2 vs Last 5 to see if a team is improving or declining
- Recovery signals are predictive — 78% of teams showing recovery continue to improve