Over/Under Betting Explained
A complete guide to betting on total goals in football matches. Learn what the lines mean and how to use pG to find value.
What Is Over/Under Betting?
Over/under (also called "totals") is a bet on the combined number of goals scored by both teams. You don't need to predict who wins — just whether the total goals will be above or below a line set by the bookmaker.
The most common line is 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 wins if there are 3 or more goals. Under 2.5 wins if there are 0, 1, or 2 goals. The ".5" ensures there's no push — you either win or lose.
Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal (3 goals total)
Common Goals Lines
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Low lineOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Standard lineOver/Under 3.5 Goals
High lineUsing pG for Over/Under Bets
Our predicted goals (pG) directly applies to over/under betting. By adding both teams' pG, you get an expected total for the match.
Example Analysis
Combined pG > 2.8
Consider Over 2.5 goals. The match is expected to be relatively high-scoring.
Combined pG < 2.2
Consider Under 2.5 goals. Low expected output from both teams.
Factors That Affect Goal Totals
League Characteristics
Bundesliga tends to be higher-scoring than Serie A. Know your league's typical goals-per-game average (2.5-2.8 is typical for top leagues).
Home vs Away
Home teams generally score more. Away teams often play more conservatively, which can lower totals.
Recent Form & xG
Look at xG trends, not just goals scored. A team creating lots of chances (high xG) will eventually convert them.
Match Importance
Relegation battles often produce fewer goals (more defensive). End-of-season dead rubbers can go either way.
Head-to-Head History
Some matchups consistently produce goals (or not). Rivalries can be unpredictable but often high-intensity.
Key Takeaways
- Over/under bets on total goals — both teams combined, not who wins
- 2.5 is the standard line — Over 2.5 needs 3+ goals, Under 2.5 needs 0-2
- Add both pG values to estimate expected total goals
- Compare your estimate to the line — is the market under or overestimating?
- Consider context — league averages, form, H2H, match importance
Continue Learning
Understanding pG (Predicted Goals) →
Learn how our predicted goals are calculated and how to use them.
Asian Handicap Explained →
Eliminate the draw and find value in handicap lines.
Double Chance Betting →
Lower risk betting by covering two outcomes at once.
Betting Odds Explained →
Master the fundamentals of reading and understanding betting odds.
See pG In Action
View our upcoming match predictions and see combined pG totals to inform your over/under analysis.
View Predictions