Aston Villa
Played
32
Record
16-7-9
Points
55
Goal Diff
+5
Form
DWLLL
Merit
1.7
Key Patterns
Signs of Recovery
After a rough patch, showing improvement in recent matches
Unpredictable Results
High match-to-match variance makes them hard to predict
Season Performance
Full StatsxG per Match
1.38
Expected goals created
Goals per Match
1.34
Actual scoring rate
Finishing
98%
Goals vs xG ratio
xGA per Match
1.50
Expected goals against
Clean Sheet %
28%
Matches without conceding
Win Rate
50%
Matches won
How We Predict This Team
38%
Accurate
22%
Partial
41%
Off
Total Predictions32
Avg pG Error0.89
Prediction BiasOver by 0.09
"This team is harder to predict than average - especially when they're underdogs"
Recent Form
All ResultsD
@ Nottingham Forest
1 - 1
xG: 1.4 - 0.8
W
vs West Ham United
2 - 0
xG: 2.5 - 0.8
L
@ Manchester United
1 - 3
xG: 1.2 - 1.7
L
vs Chelsea
1 - 4
xG: 1.1 - 3.4
L
@ Wolverhampton Wanderers
0 - 2
xG: 1.3 - 1.5
D
vs Leeds United
1 - 1
xG: 1.3 - 1.3
Upcoming Fixtures
All Predictions
Sun 19 Apr
1.46 - 0.77
predicted
Sat 25 Apr
1.57 - 0.96
predicted
Sat 2 May
2.04 - 0.78
predicted
Upset Profile
As Favorite (14 matches)
2 upset alerts, 2 converted(100% vulnerability)
As Underdog (18 matches)
1 upsets from 2 alert matches(50% conversion)
"This team is vulnerable when upset signals fire against them"
Contrarian Signals
Model Backed Them
2/4 correct(50% success)
Model Faded Them
2/4 correct fades(50% fade success)
Form can be misleading
"Form can be misleading - contrarian picks have been right 50% of the time"
Key Opponents
Full H2H
West Ham United
14 matches played
4W - 5D - 5L
Last 5: WWDWD
Chelsea
14 matches played
5W - 2D - 7L
Last 5: LWWLD
Crystal Palace
14 matches played
5W - 3D - 6L
Last 5: DLLDL
Home vs Away Performance
Home
Stat
Away
16
Played
16
10
Wins
6
2
Draws
5
4
Losses
5
23
Goals For
20
15
Goals Against
23
32
Points
23