Football Betting Odds Explained
A complete guide to understanding how football odds work, what they mean, and how to read them across different formats.
What Are Betting Odds?
Betting odds represent two things: the probability of an outcome happening and the potential payout if you bet on that outcome. Understanding odds is fundamental to making informed betting decisions.
Key insight: Lower odds mean the outcome is more likely (in the bookmaker's view), but you'll win less. Higher odds mean less likely, but bigger potential winnings.
Example: Manchester City vs Southampton
The Three Main Odds Formats
Odds are displayed differently depending on the region. Here's how to read each format:
Decimal Odds
The most straightforward format. The number shows your total return per £1 staked (including your original stake).
Fractional Odds
Shows your profit relative to your stake. The first number is profit, the second is the stake needed.
American Odds (Moneyline)
Uses positive (+) and negative (-) numbers. Positive shows profit on a $100 bet; negative shows how much you need to bet to win $100.
Odds Conversion Reference
Use this table to quickly convert between formats:
| Decimal | Fractional | American | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1/2 | -200 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | 1/1 (evens) | +100 | 50.0% |
| 2.50 | 3/2 | +150 | 40.0% |
| 3.00 | 2/1 | +200 | 33.3% |
| 4.00 | 3/1 | +300 | 25.0% |
| 6.00 | 5/1 | +500 | 16.7% |
| 10.00 | 9/1 | +900 | 10.0% |
Understanding Implied Probability
Every set of odds implies a probability — what the bookmaker believes is the likelihood of that outcome. This is crucial for finding value bets.
Converting Decimal Odds to Probability
(1 ÷ 2.50) × 100 = 40%
(1 ÷ 1.50) × 100 = 66.7%
Why This Matters
If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning but the odds imply only 40%, you've found potential value. The bookmaker is underestimating that team. This is the foundation of smart betting.
The Bookmaker's Margin (Overround)
Bookmakers don't offer fair odds — they build in a profit margin. If you add up the implied probabilities for all outcomes, they'll total more than 100%.
Example: Liverpool vs Arsenal
The 5.4% above 100% is the bookmaker's margin — their built-in profit regardless of the outcome.
What This Means For You
The margin means you're always starting at a disadvantage. To profit long-term, you need to find bets where your assessment of probability is significantly better than what the odds imply — not just slightly better.
Common Football Betting Markets
1X2 (Match Result)
The most basic bet: Home Win (1), Draw (X), or Away Win (2).
Double Chance
Covers two outcomes: 1X (home or draw), X2 (draw or away), or 12 (either team wins).
Over/Under Goals
Bet on total goals being over or under a line (usually 2.5).
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Simple yes/no bet on whether both teams will score at least once.
Asian Handicap
Levels the playing field by giving one team a virtual head start. Eliminates the draw.
How ScoresAhead Helps You
Understanding odds is step one. But knowing which bets have value requires understanding the underlying match dynamics — and that's where our predictions help.
Our pG Predictions
We predict expected goals for each team using machine learning. Compare our pG predictions to what the odds imply to spot potential value.
Learn about pG →Match Insights
We analyze form, head-to-head records, xG trends, and more to give you context the odds alone don't reveal.
Learn about our analysis →Key Takeaways
- Odds show probability and potential payout — lower odds = more likely, less profit
- Three main formats: Decimal (2.50), Fractional (3/2), American (+150)
- Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds — use this to assess value
- Bookmakers build in margin — probabilities always add up to more than 100%
- Value betting means finding odds that underestimate an outcome's true probability
Gamble Responsibly
Betting should be entertainment, not income. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling becomes a problem, seek help at BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline.
Continue Learning
Over/Under Betting Guide →
Deep dive into over/under goals markets and strategies.
Asian Handicap Explained →
Eliminate the draw and find better value in handicap markets.
Double Chance Betting (1X, X2, 12) →
Lower risk by covering two outcomes with a single bet.
What is xG (Expected Goals)? →
Understand the key metric for modern football analysis.
Ready to See Real Predictions?
Now that you understand odds, check out our match predictions to see pG analysis alongside bookmaker odds.
View Predictions