Lower Risk Betting

Double Chance Betting Explained

Cover two of three outcomes with a single bet. Lower odds, but significantly higher chance of winning.

6 minute read

What Is Double Chance?

Double Chance lets you bet on two of the three possible outcomes in a football match. Instead of picking just home win, draw, or away win — you cover two options with one bet.

Think of it as insurance: You sacrifice some potential payout for a much higher probability of winning. Great for matches where you have a slight lean but aren't fully confident.

1X

Home Win OR Draw

You win if the home team wins or the match draws. Only lose if away team wins.

X2

Draw OR Away Win

You win if it draws or away team wins. Only lose if home team wins.

12

Home OR Away Win

You win if either team wins. Only lose if the match draws.

Real Example: Arsenal vs Newcastle

Match Result Odds (1X2)

Arsenal (1)

1.65

Draw (X)

3.80

Newcastle (2)

5.50

Double Chance Odds

1X (Arsenal or Draw)

1.18

~85% implied probability

X2 (Draw or Newcastle)

2.10

~48% implied probability

12 (Arsenal or Newcastle)

1.28

~78% implied probability

Comparing Outcomes (£10 stake)

If result is...	Arsenal (1)	1X	X2	12
Arsenal wins	+£6.50	+£1.80	-£10	+£2.80
Draw	-£10	+£1.80	+£11	-£10
Newcastle wins	-£10	-£10	+£11	+£2.80

When to Use Each Option

1X (Home or Draw)

Use when you think the home team won't lose, but aren't sure they'll win outright.

• Home team is solid but facing a defensive opponent
• Strong home record but opponent is difficult to beat
• Derby matches where home advantage matters

X2 (Draw or Away)

Use when you don't expect the home team to win. Good for away teams with strong records or struggling home sides.

• Away team is in great form
• Home team struggling at home
• Away team has historically done well at this venue

12 (Home or Away — No Draw)

Use when you expect a decisive result but aren't sure which team will win.

• Two attacking teams likely to produce goals
• Matches with low draw probability historically
• Cup matches where a winner is needed

Using pG for Double Chance

Our pG predictions help identify which double chance option makes sense based on expected goals.

Decision Framework

1X→When home pG is higher but margin is small

e.g., Home 1.5 pG vs Away 1.2 pG — home favored but could easily draw

X2→When away pG is close to or higher than home

e.g., Home 1.3 pG vs Away 1.4 pG — away slight favorite, draw possible

12→When combined pG is high (3.0+)

e.g., Home 2.0 pG vs Away 1.5 pG — likely to produce goals, draw less likely

Pros and Cons

Advantages

• Much higher win rate than 1X2
• Good for uncertain matches
• Reduces variance in your betting
• Great for accumulators (less likely to fail)
• Simple to understand

Disadvantages

• Lower odds = smaller profits
• Can be poor value on heavy favorites
• 1X on a favorite often has very low odds
• Still lose money if wrong outcome happens
• May tempt you to bet on matches you'd otherwise skip

Key Takeaways

Double Chance covers 2 of 3 outcomes — safer but lower odds
1X = Home or Draw, X2 = Draw or Away, 12 = Either team wins
Best for uncertain matches where you have a lean but not full confidence
Use pG difference to decide which option makes sense
Good for accumulators — reduces the chance of one leg failing

See Our Match Predictions

Check pG predictions to help decide which double chance option fits each match.

View Predictions